7. Law and Order: The U.S. Justice Department will announce a major antitrust investigation aimed at a Pittsburgh institution. The homicide rate in Pittsburgh will increase in 2010.
Two pretty clear predictions there. On the first -- antitrust -- no dice, although the Obama Administration has stepped up the pace of antitrust enforcement generally. On the second -- the homicide rate -- it looks to me like the number went up, but after quite a bit of searching I couldn't find a year-to-date number for 2010. Of course, the number of homicides was strikingly low in 2009. At least as important than the overall numbers, however, are the patterns. Take a look at these helpful Google Maps mashups assembled by the Post-Gazette, displaying each Allegheny County homicide by race, gender, and location. Here's the map for 2009. Here's the map for 2010. Pittsburgh is proud of its reputation as a city that is relatively free of violent crime. The maps confirm some continuing problems.
One mark out of two in this category.